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February 3
It's fun to wax nostalga about your hobbies and interrests as you get older. You compare waistlines, hairlines, and how gravity effects your skin and butt. Looking back to the early 80's we saw two contenders enter into the computer business each with their own tact on the situation. Apple had a lock-down on the burgoning home-user market with nice looking - albiet expensive - computers that could run Visicalc and most of the same software that was being used at Schools for the kids to hammer on at home - when they weren't pirating the beejezus out of every computer game that was being released for it. A few years later a group of techies wondered if it was possible to reverse engineer the BIOS that IBM used in their office desktop computers. One year and several million dollars later, Compaq ushered in a new line of IBM compatables in many configurations, and more importantly, cheaper price-levels to firmly establish the IBM PC as the standard-de-rigour for offices and small businesses. Flash forward to 1998. Last week, Compaq decided that they wanted to break away from the Wintel clone market and play host to enterprise computing on the same level that IBM continues to rake in the money. And they spent a ton eating Digital to do it. Not bad for a 14-15 year old company. Apple meanwhile is floundering from dated technology, high overheads in doing both hardware and software, diminshing marketshare, vanishing sales presance, dwindiling software support, erroding service and support, layoffs, an endless string of bad quarterly results, oddball random marketing, brand erosion, and general lackluster returns on public perception. Very BAD for a 20 year old company. What does the future bode for these two contenders? Well Compaq's main concern is to make their investment pay off where SGI's purchase of Cray didn't. But with Compaq's ability to seize momentum and mind-share I don't doubt we'll see an example of how SGI could have done things differently. In fact if I was at IBM, I'd be a little nervous because Compaq always has the hunger. But if Compaq has the hunger, Apple's starving to death. Not since Chrystler was going down in flames in the 70's and required the direct interference of the government to keep alfoat, have we seen such a massive steady downturn on each and every front. The MacJihad have been touting that people have claimed that Apple was in trouble before, and it's never going to happen. Don't count on it. Before now, the worst Apple had was a couple of bad quarters and a CEO that needed removal pronto - back when they were much smaller in scale and the overhead wasn't nearly as bad as it is today. Now that same nutty CEO is back, and Apple's game-plan has very little to do with selling computers in today's marketplace as much as trying to foist another menagerie of bizzare solutions from left-field like NCs and Rhapsody. Which company will succeed in the future? It ain't the fruit baby!
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