Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock

December 28

More and more, the followers of the Apple movement are not only loosing out on their credibility with fruit-loop an honim attacks, they're also getting closer to loosing thier religion. One wonders if Apple's wonderful bushel of fruit ever falls off the tree into the hands of - say - Hewlett Packard, if the faithfull can stand not worshiping a six color logo. With the zelotry that surrounded Power Computing, anything's possible. But in the same manner that Apple fanatics have had to switch their brains 180 degrees to think that the loss of Power Computing was somehow a good thing, I wonder if they'll be able to pry their mind into a company that is a sub-arm of an otherwise faceless entity. In this case, I doubt we'll have to wonder either way, since Apple's screwed just about every sutor out there. That's why I just smile whenever I hear how Apple and it's great tools will survive in the long haul under different ownership because the technology is so damn good. The fact that they've tried and failed to sell themselves several times in the last decade - compounded pissing on several concecutive deals during the Sculley years - makes for few customers that are even interrested in such a deal these days when these companies (Sun, HP, AT&T) are all doing just fine now - thank you very much - and don't need the headache that results from taking on a white elephant. Even the biggest deal-maker/company assimilator these days, Microsoft, would hardly be interresting in taking on anything from a company that sued them for almost a decade. Perhaps they might be interrested with quicktime, but with the recent deals with SGI, somehow I seriously doubt it.

December 29
One of the biggest indicators of how Apple is doing in casual social circles, is how often it comes up in geekspeak session. You know the drill - over a few drinks the conversation wavers from current personal occasions, to the current events, how the opposite sex of interrest is doing, to hobbies. For me, hobbies is split from restoring ancient video games, how to creatively drown people in exploding latex balloons, and computers. I've noticed that when the conversation turns to geekspeak terms, it's what's the hottest PC config and what to do with Windows NT, Java, and CGI. Mac only hits the list at the bottem or some surly mindshare on when Apple's ship is going to sink. There was a time when Apple popped to the top of the pile. It was centered on what was the best Illustration program - Freehand/Adobe Illustrator - or what was going on in the world of multimedia and what was the cheapest Mac config that went along with it. For a time, in the late 80's and the early 90's, it was what the hell was NeXT all about and what the hell is Steve Jobs up to. The rest of the world grew up, and Apple was left in the cold. In fact most recently - after a round of Wine and Irish Whiskey - the geekspeak was torn between DVD, IBM, and the best server configs available for T1 routers and pipes available to local clients. Granted this may not be the public norm, but even the best geekheads around - after the former conversational options are spent - don't talk about Apple. This isn't just coincendence, this is the status-quo. And as much as I have a personal aversion the status-quo, it shows how much those that depend on computers to earn a living - as well as those that like to babble on about it in alcohol imbibed social circles - care about Apple and their technology. In this case, over many conversations with many people, it's not one whit. So why is Apple wasting it's time pretending people care about them otherwise? You've got me on that one.

December 30

Well, the 50 foot net has been constructed, and about 500 or so balloons have been inflated. Another 900 to go. While I bide my time bending my fingers for rock-concerts, Apple is going to attempt to bend the ear of the media once again within a week or so at the next MacWorld Expo. For me the numbers are simple economics and geometry. For Apple they aren't going to be pretty. Jobs will be doing some fine boostering to get the public to ralley behind it's new flock of pirate flags that have been waving in Cuppertino since his return. In fact it's probably going to dwarf what he pulled back in the late summer with Bill Gates, even though his following appearance was lackluster to say the least. No the reason I'm expecting a no-holds barred, nuclear level reality distortion field is because while APPL stock has taken a beating with only a late term 2 dollar bounce for the year - the other numbers don't look pretty. The SEC disclosure points to a major slide this quarter, with the 2nd quarter showing marketshare slipping to a mere 2 percent. Even with numbers this bad, I suspect this won't be the case. I think they'll actually take thier biggest dive when the last quarter of the year (the first quarter for Apple) shows them having slid even further. Because while the holidays was a boom-time globaly for PC sales, this wasn't the case for Apple. If anything the momentum they lost in their 4th quarter is going to make for a severe beating once the holiday numbers are in. Which is tragic, because for a time this was the premiere quarter for Apple where they could recoup any slides from the previous year. Now it hangs over them like a dark storm cloud. Now the merits of marketshare are still abstract somewhat in my book, but if they decline much further they will show Apple's woes in a whole new focus. Because unlike Sun and SGI's marketshare, they don't come with a high margin for profit and a series of respectible locks on their respective markets. Apple's markets are drying up - and fast. That's why as I prepare to release a balloon drop for new years, Apple's going to have to prepare to drop the largest PR spin in their history.

December 31

While it was worth it for me and half a dozen worth of comp'ed tickets for a great New Years Eve show, I doubt I'm going to let my fingers endure another 1,440 balloons and 50 feet worth of rigging for a little while. I'll have the pictures that one of my assistants and professional photographers took available on a sister site for anyone curious what the hell I've been side-noting for the last couple of weeks. What Apple is going to have to endure is going to be a hell of a lot more than a couple of sore fingers for the new year. Apple is going to have to show some kind of bonfide direction to regain confidence in their already abandoning marketplace. The problem boils down to more than confidence, but one of inherint value. While the Apple faithful continue to drone on how the Mac is superior to Windows, the truth is that while most PC users have tried both the Mac and Windows - and come up with their choices - most Apple users haven't done the opposite. This is why they look more than a little niave when all they can do is tout statistics that they've been told by their buddies to back up their viewpoints. The problem is that these viewpoints are not only dated, but suffer from the same real-world innacuracies that plague word-of-mouth rather than actually having used the damn thing in question. Besides sounding like hypocritical radical Babtists, slamming a movie they've never seen, they point out the true reason that Apple is hurting so badly. The difference between the two platforms isn't major. This is why people who can't afford a more than 2000 dollar computer without the trimmings will continue to give Apple the cold shoulder. The advantages of either platform pale when the pocketbook counts. This is ironically why I got a NeXT in the first place. I got one because it was half the price of a Mac IIfx - and that was without a monitor. I got the NeXT because at least - for a time - I could use Adobe Illustrator and get things rolling on side-interrests before I went into freelance design. According to NeXT, this was the best thing since sliced bread. The NeXT had; a DSP, VLSI integration for handling I/O functions quickly, a MACH Unix kernal for true multitasking, one of the first integrated mutlimedia and document imbeded e-mail applications, a very fast search engine, free dictionary's and other reference goodies, a very fast and cheap laser printer, and - it was black. The public didn't give a damn. Because all they noticed was a high price tag when it shipped for a basic configuration, and the lack of a floppy drive. Even when they fixed the floppy drive defecit and put in a speedy 040, the public REALLY didn't give a damn because all they saw was a box that didn't have much software, wasn't available in stores, and was now more expensive than the first generation of quasi-cheap Macintoshes, and really cheap Wintel boxes. As time rolled by, even the esoteric techie nonsence was embarrasing. The DSP was never ever really used by anyone in the development community, the version of MACH implimentation was dating fast, the VLSI integration didn't work as well as hoped since third party printers were serial - not NeXT's high-speed dedicated port, and the laser printer was now more expensive than everything else out there by an order of 2x. If you asked a NeXT user then though, they could rant out the list of advantages that made the extra costs worth it to them. After a while though, they realized that they were pretty much by themselves in these arguments, and no one else really cared - much less even saw a NeXT in action to begin with. Now Apple users sound pretty much the same. Sure the various peripherals have better integration against kit Wintels, and the OS - while sluggish - is still more elegant in esoteric terms. But the general public still sees higher price-tags, less software on the shelves, less macs on the shelves, and less reasons to pick one over the other when it comes right down to it. Sure, the Mac users can point to catalogues and features, but back in 1991, so could I. That's why I'm confident that when the balloons drop from the net, and I'm getting hosed down with wine, beer, and fire extinguishers, I'll be even more confident that Apple will continue going down their road to going bust.

January 1

Happy New Year to Wintel users! Good luck for the rest of you. This eve was remarkable in not only did the drop work as planned, but I got away hangover free - which was not planned. The general frenzy following 10 hours of work, all demolished in 10 minutes, left me hitting the energy wall after 1:30am. Of course I could console my loss of all-out partying with free Guiness Beer from the stock that the band was hosing down the audince with, while watching back-stage. While my night was above-par with previous years by a long-shot, Apple's going to have one serious headache to deal with. To run clean-up on the last thread of ideas from the previous day, there's one other point left to pop. The biggest symptom of Apple's woes is the lack of obvious advantage to the general public in Apple's equity in the marketplace. The foundation of this problem sinks even further. Apple for more than a decade was the best gig in town when it came to GUI's. Now that this is no longer the obvious case - and can be argued that they've been falling behind now that most of the founders of this look and feel have left (even for Microsoft) - Apple is loathe to solve the problem at it's roots. Rhapsody, even if it amounts to more than what it served for NeXT, isn't even being targeted as the big-push that it was when Gil was in charge. The reality is that both OS8 and Rhapsody are looking long in the tooth to the casual observer. There's just not that much new happening there. While Windows 98 will be displaying new degrees of internet integration and a cleaner look and feel, Apple will be putting new curtains on what essentially are some very old window dressing. This is a big problem. Because even if the general public can turn a blind eye to the fiscal crisis and lack of mindshare in the marketplace when it comes to Apple - the damn thing just LOOKS old fashioned. Even worse, the latest improvements that come with very marginal improvemnts inherent with OS 8 cause many macs to look slow. Sluggish even. This isn't putting your best foot forward when you're trying to impress the buyer of a new system. But the worst side of this is the same problem that is now plaguing SGI. Their solution doens't LOOK that good when compared to the cost and effectiveness of a loaded-to the gills Windows NT box. It looks terrible when the price tag is whipped out. The advantages are not only small when they're placed side by side in the real-world marketplace, they're invisible. I'm certainly glad I'm not on janitorial duty when they clean up the mess that I helped to make at the concert in question - something on the order of 3000 colored condom like broken balloon pieces resting in unappealing crowd/band spooge. No one is even glancing at Apple anymore as they try to free themselves from the mess they're in.

January 2

Getting back to work, it didn't take long to punch on the T1 and do a little catching up on what the hell the news services have to say. Apple has another lawsuit from someone who is suffering from their stop the clones rampage, hype on the celebraties that have accepted the corporate shill drill, and of course the Mac Jihad have spread into further surreal territory. The lawsuit is from one of the vendors that supplied parts to build clones, and now has a warehouse filled with incomplete orders, and has had to lay everyone off associated with operations due to Steve Jobs and his ability to contradict what was a good thing in the marketplace. Merry Christmas to them. The shill thing is interresting because for a second time in less than a year, boxing legend Ali is on the bill. This is odd because the last time he tried to make an appearance, he was bumped off the stage by the whole return of Steve Jobs thing. After being in the audience and then getting burned, it's ironic that he would tempt a second round and a possible beating in logistics. The most surreal thing to see on the office pipe was that the Jihad while behaving as incesant as ever, is now undermining their credibility in very creative ways. If you go to Yahoo's financial section and look up Apple (APPL) you'll find a message board for investors to prattle on what they're spending their money on. Oh no, I thought, the Jihad can't possibly be compromising their reputation HERE of all places - not with the straights! Yep. There they were carrying on the same juvinile defensive warlike banter that infests everything they touch, even in my own BBBS. Oh yah, this is a far cry from the message board at HP or IBM which is speculating what the actual company is actually doing to increase their net-worth and the investor's portfolio. Oh no, these mental midgets are sending out a clear signal to the real-world that doesn't even fathom what the Jihad and the AppleMovement is all about. That the MacJihad are a bunch of total loonies. I mean, sure I've seen this type of stuff for years. Amiga vs ST, Apple II vs Atari 800, Commodore 64 vs everyone. But comeon, this isn't some random out of control UseNet site -this is the friggin online investment community! These are the people who try to take a critical eye of what the company is doing and how their portfolio is performing. At the first sign of trouble, they're going to jump ship immediately. Well, having an investment roundtable suddenly resemble the peanut gallery at the Howdy Doody show is at the very least - a red-flag. At the worst, it represents one of the most dramatic and direct examples of shooting yourself in the foot in front of your investors. Perhaps now I know why the stock has lost more than 10 points over the last month. Wow.

January 3

Speaking of public perception, it's easy to note that over the course of the last week, if not the last few months, of observation - that the Apple community has really succeeded in isolating itself from the mainstream. While they feel that the public can come around to their way of thinking eventually - the real evidence points that they're too far gone. With the gap between their view of reality, and the rest of the world's view of reality so far removed from each other, it's no longer a mere question of culture gap - it's a complete removal from reality. Sure, if Apple somehow does manage to actually create a tight package that really gives people a reason to cease their riot level of abandonment of Apple, they could actually stem the nosedive they're in. But no one who uses Apple products, or still works for Apple, thinks anything is wrong. How could they? Apple thinks their brand is still strong - and not a joke. Apple's users think they have something that's the best on the planet and that their employers will never switch - contrary to what most IT administrators are doing. Apple thinks education will sustain them indefinetly - while schools look at updating to platforms that jobs are computing on. Apple users think that having a pretty interface is the key - rather than one that a majority of applications run on. Apple thinks that new G3 technology will raise the performance bar and spur sales - rather than get in on the hottest growth in the industry, the under 1000 dollar computer. Apple's users think that futzing with extensions endlessly, and having true-plug and play is the key to their superiority complexes - rather than waiting 30 seconds for a new driver to install with a new zip drive automatically. Apple belives that Rhapsody will bring the best idea of NeXT to the open market and expose it's rich featureset to the world - while the rest of the world has never heard of NeXT. Until Apple can bridge this Grand-Canyon of perspective, don't expect them to either get a clue, or turn a profit.